American political system has been relatively stable since the American Civil war (April 12, 1861 - April 9, 1865) for roughly158 years. As a capitalist nation, the U.S. political system is essentially controlled by the capitalists through the financial system (U.S. dollar-dominated capital market) and its domestic economy. The presidential election, a highly financed activity involving billions of dollars, has become an enterprise system of a four-year cycle coupled closely with the U.S. economy. The citizens have little influence on the process of producing a presidential candidate. Since WW II, the U.S. has become the strongest nation and largest economy in the world, the U.S. presidential election has been ‘nominally’ measured by who can maintain a prosperous U.S. economy and a strong foreign influence in the world arena. From the capitalists point of view, the above two measuring factors are essentially reflected in the performance of the financial (stock) market and diplomatic power influencing global stability and economy. For American citizens, the above two measuring factors should be their state (standard) of living and state (peace) of mind, but unfortunately, these factors can be obscured by capitalists-controlled media - financial market performance masking the standard of living and ideological propaganda brainwashing the state of mind. So, the 2024 presidential election is just another cyclic event for the capitalists to manage. The American voters can only wait for November 2024.
We are fourteen months to the next U.S. Presidential election. President Joe Biden has announced to seek reelection as the incumbent. The Democrat party essentially endorsed Biden’s candidacy. The two other contenders, one is Marianne Williamson, a ‘self-help’ author and the other is Robert Kennedy, Jr. nephew of John F Kennedy, but labeled as an anti-vaccine activist; both are far behind in polls. President Biden campaigned as a protector of democracy and a stabilizer of American diplomacy after Trump, but his deeds in rallying ASEAN and Latin American nations can hardly claim success. His anti-China policy may be more organized involving Allies, but the effect seems to make China more resilient. On the Republican side, the former President Trump is commanding a huge lead making the other twelve candidates seemingly irrelevant. Only eight candidates qualified (>1% support in polls) for the first debate where Trump declined to participate. The only highlight of the debate is perhaps that Trump is still the only viable candidate and Vivek Ramaswamy, an Indian American, entrepreneur, and author, was recognized for his debate skills acquired at Harvard. In the meantime, Trump is facing several legal charges ranging from interfering with elections to tax evasion. So far Trump has been able to turn his legal problems into campaign drama in a helpful way. Since both Biden and Trump are using anti-China rhetoric as their basic foreign policy, American voters need to understand the real significance of U.S. China policy.
Presently, Americans are experiencing high inflation and a sluggish economy with unemployment and lack of workers happening in different sectors of the economy. The Biden Administration seems to realize that decoupling or de-risking may not produce any positive effect on the American economy except making China focus on plucking its deficiencies. The Administration is seeking dialog on the one hand and enacting more sanctions against China on the other hand, a very confusing China policy. The former British Minister of Trade and Industries, Vince Cable, had openly spoken in a speech (2022 available on YouTube) about China. Previously, Cable had stated: “China has never undermined a rules-based International system and we ban Huawei because we were told to.” These words may not be what Biden wanted to hear, but they are the truth. In Cable’s 2022 speech at a British university, he was again very candidly speaking the truth. First, he disputed that China had a secret plan to out-power the U.S. It was simple arithmetic that if China sets a goal to achieve 1/4 of Americans’ standard of living for the Chinese population (4x of U.S.), China will produce an economy equivalent to or bigger than that of the U.S. The U.S. needs not to fear China but needs to accept the reality (like the U.K. being the number one economy one century ago now ranked number eight). It is simply a reality that the U.S. must get used to like the U.K. did. Hopefully, the Biden administration will listen to the advice (face the reality) and keep an open mind to engage with China rather than to de-couple with China with a Cold War. The Americans facing two anti-China candidates must ponder Cable’s speech and let the candidates hear the truth.
Let’s suppose that China can continuously succeed in its economic development, what would happen to the West and to the World? Extrapolating from Minister Cable’s speech, it should be a good thing that a billion-plus people will have a middle-class standard of living rather than in poverty. That means the West and the world can do lots of trade with China. There were numerous areas for cooperation, pandemic prevention, climate change control, sustainable energy, medical and biological research, financial systems, space exploration, etc etc. China not only can provide resources for collaboration but also can offer a huge market for end products. From the world economy stands, China will be a locomotive for the world. From the world security point of view, China can be a stabilizing force comes to defusing nuclear threats, for example, in dealing with North Korea, Pakistan, and Iran. The only impact to the U.S. is that it will accept China in its rule-based system allowing China to have a voice. Is this too much for the U.S. to lose? Cable’s speech can be viewed as a sensible West (G7) view. The rest of the world will most likely welcome this outcome, as exhibited by ASEAN and the African and Latin American nations’ desire to not take sides between the U.S. and China competition.
A piece of advice to American voters for the 2024 presidential election is that since we have little chance of producing a candidate to replace Biden or Trump, we need to focus on how to make them accept the truth and face reality for the benefit of the U.S. future.
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