Ifay Chang, China-US Forum bilingual columnist
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Military alliances as a strategy have a long history in international affairs. China has had a deep understanding of military alliances since the ancient 'Spring and Autumn Period' and the 'Warring States Period'. This strategy is effective in maintaining peace and resolving disputes, but its starting point, purpose, and application must be carefully considered, or it will lead to war. In Chinese history, there were many cases written in books that showed the tragic consequences of improper use of military alliances (see the Spring and Autumn Annals). In China's famous military theory (see Sun Tzu's Art of War), military operations are advised to be always placed below political diplomacy measures. Military alliances have become more widely known as a practice of international foreign policy in modern history. The cause of World War I was the Triple Alliance (Central Powers). Germany, Italy, and the Austria-Hungary Empire formed an alliance and engaged in aggressive behavior, then caused Britain, France, and Russia to organize the Allied Powers, eventually leading to war (a bad consequence!). During the war escalation, Italy revoked its military alliances with the Central Powers and joined the Allied Powers. Russia, with its October Revolution occurring within, became too busy to engage in an external war. The United States watched the conflict and thoughtfully delayed joining the Allies, thus easily becoming a victorious nation in World War I in the end.

Reviewing the events of World War II in modern history, whether from a European point of view, setting the starting point of World War II on September 1, 1937, or from an Asian point of view, setting the starting point of World War II on September 18, 1931, large scale war was eventually triggered because Germany and Japan acted aggressively and adopted a military alliance strategy, which elevated military operations to the level of a world war. It became a confrontation between the Axis Powers (Germany, Italy, and Japan) and the Allies (Britain, Russia, France, the United States, and China). Unfortunately, China was closed, corrupt, and weak during the late years of the Qing Dynasty, and China’s national revolution encountered interference from foreign powers. During its process of building a republic nation, China was invaded and was a victimized nation. Even though China joined the Allies and became the victor in World War II, it ultimately endured the scourge of war for fourteen years. The United States entered World War II at a later stage, and in the early stages, it used trade to make war profits. If Japan hadn't panicked and worried about insufficient war resources and launched a sneak attack on Pearl Harbor to destroy the U.S. Navy and obtain shipping support, the United States might not have joined the Allied Powers in declaring war on Japan. The United States' careful consideration of joining a military alliance was prudent and beneficial in both world wars. This history is worth remembering.

Today, the United States has become the most powerful country in the world. In addition to its rich resources, the biggest reason is the benefits it gained from the two wars. After World War II, the United States regarded itself as the world leader, leading the fight against communist expansion. The U.S. adopted military alliance strategies to gain its influence worldwide and launched the Cold War and regional proxy wars in the name of national/world security. After the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 due to its economic failure, the United States became the world's largest power. Unfortunately, the United States mistakenly regards military alliances as its primary political and foreign policy. It organized the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Europe and built island chains in Asia to contain Russia and China. It used military alliances as its main tool. However, a military alliance is an aggressive and threatening policy, no matter how it is disguised with a defensive and peaceful purpose. In addition, judging from ancient to modern history, military alliances have two fatal shortcomings. One is that it has huge financial costs, and its consumption of capital gets no productive or financial return. The second is that there are great variables in military alliances, which have a fatal impact on the outcome of the strategy. There are many examples of this in history, China had great losses from its alliances with Russia, Italy's defection in World War I, and during World War II, the U.S.’s declaration of war against the Axis Alliances, against Japan and Germany were all unexpected.

Today, the United States is using NATO to expand its military alliances, and its threat to the Soviet Union cannot be disguised. The United States feels the financial burden of having so many military alliances and must ask everyone to increase the military spending budget which yields no economic return. The member states of NATO are by no means showing or acting in complete unity, this was evident in the Russo-Ukrainian war, putting the favorable outcome beyond the control of the United States. The military alliance between the United States and Israel is essentially giving Israel the ticket to massacring people in Gaza and bombing the Iranian embassy. As a military ally of Israel, the United States feels hands-tied and powerless at this moment, and yet it is extremely afraid of being dragged into a war, especially a possible nuclear war. In Asia, the United States is trying its best to win over Japan and South Korea and strengthen its military alliances. But we must point out its problems. First, there is a century feud between Japan and South Korea, and second, the domestic citizen’s supports of their two leaders today are extremely low, meaning the leaders can be changed thwarting their military alliances with the U.S. There is also a hidden mentality in the two countries which is the feeling of shame of being pressed under the thumb of the United States. In addition, economically both Japan and South Korea rely heavily on the Chinese market. Whether the US-Japan and US-ROK military alliances are blessings or curses cannot be determined by a state visit or a leader’s state dinner. The United States also wants to involve India in the US-UK-Australia-Japan alliance. The Chicago Economic Council surveyed Americans' trust in Japan, South Korea, India, and China on security issues, and India was once rated even lower than China. China’s low rating is understandable because of the constant US media smearing. However, will India's back-biting diplomacy and purchase of Russian military weapons under the guise of its non-alignment policy lend confidence to the U.S.-India military alliance?

Military alliances are by no means a free lunch. President Biden thinks he is a veteran in diplomacy. As China rose and the United States gradually lost its influence, Biden’s Administration pursued more military alliances with a Cold War mentality to suppress China's development. This is a wrong policy that harms the world; it does not benefit the U.S. It has unintended consequences and predictable dangerous outcomes. Frankly, I must say the following things that today’s American politicians will not say or unwilling to listen. Not every country agrees with the US-centered national or world security policy. For example, Australia has no reason to take a confrontational line with the United States against China. China is not a threat to Australia but is a huge importer of Australian coal, iron, wine, and lobster. Since taking office, the new Prime Minister, Albanese, has eased the Australia-China tension created by former PM, Morrison. Southeast Asian nations, including Vietnam, are not willing to choose sides and engage in unreasonable anti-China diplomacy. Their trade and exchanges with China are win-win businesses. One wonders if it is beneficial for the United States to support Japan’s military resurgence. Why does the U.S. ignore the predictable mutual benefits and prosperity obtainable by peaceful cooperation and fair competition with China? Is the United States so afraid of losing and so lacking in self-confidence? Americans should have the courage to reflect and invest more energy and capital in its infrastructure, economy, and people's livelihoods than waste them on military alliances. Again, military alliances are not a free lunch!




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This author had written before and commented specifically about the U.S. judiciary system regarding the Foreign Corruption Protection Act (FCPA), for example, the notorious Alston case and many other cases as well as the International Emergency Economic Power Act (IEEPA); for example, the recent notorious case - the Huawei's financial executive Ms. Meng Wan Zhou case. Ms. Meng was being pursued by the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Division of Homeland Security department and the U.S. Justice Department. The U.S. Congress often enacts laws proposed by the Administration, the enacted laws then allow the Administration to prosecute the 'violators' of the laws through the justice department (JOD). These actions were termed as U.S. long-arm law enforcement in the international arena. Long-arm of course implies that the U.S. jurisdiction is far-reaching to foreign countries regardless of their legal systems. In Alston's case, the company was eventually closed and sold to a US company. In Huawei's case, Ms. Meng was released after three years of house arrest in Canada. Huawei company's 5G products were banned in the U.S. and elsewhere because of the U.S. accusation of a potential national security threat. These past cases are evidence that the U.S. judiciary system is highly political and subject to governmental influence.
 
In this writing, the author will discuss the subject matter under US domestic jurisdiction but anticipating its important international impact, that is the legal cases against the U.S. presidential candidate, Donald Trump. Trump, the former U.S. President, is nearly the De-facto Republican Party's nominee for the 2024 presidential election. However, Trump is facing multiple legal cases against him while he is working hard on his campaign to win the presidency in 2024.  We are not here to judge Donald Trump on his business conduct, personal behavior, or patriotism (that is for the society and American people to determine.) What we will discuss is the operation of the American judiciary system, in handling Donald Trump's cases - whether the system should avoid being influenced by national politics or the government. In a fair democratic system, no one is above the law, but the law must be fair and equal for everyone regardless of the person's fame, fortune, or political and religious belief. In facing legal prosecution, Donald Trump seems to get more than a fair share of attention from the DOJ compared to an ordinary citizen. The intense 'attention' came from the DOJ despite its backlog of cases and the attention also came from the media amid presidential campaign activities. These attentions are not giving Trump preferential treatment but extra harassment. All in all, it appears that there is an 'invisible' influence on the judicial process applied to Donald Trump's legal cases. 
 
Let's first look at the legal cases against Trump and how is he being treated 'specially' by the U.S. legal and media system. The following are typical headlines in CNN reports:
 
“Trump’s first criminal trial is a historic and solemn moment for America”.
“The United States will cross a historic threshold on 4/22/2024 when for the first time a former president goes on criminal trial in a case laced with fateful significance because Donald Trump could be back in the Oval Office next year.”
 
This report has clearly shown that Trump's case is given a “special' treatment by the media and DOJ. This is the first of his four criminal cases, Trump was indicted in New York City on March 30, 2023, on charges involving paying hush money to silence a scandal about an extramarital affair that arose during his first presidential campaign in 2016.
 
The indictment states that Trump falsified his company's internal records to hide the hush money paid to his lawyer, Michael Cohen, who helped cover up Trump’s extramarital affairs with two women, porn star Stormy Daniels and Playboy model Karen McDougal (who claimed they had extramarital sexual encounters with Trump years earlier), as well as another story by a Trump Tower doorman claiming to have a story about Trump's illegit child out of wedlock. Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, a Democrat (rarely identified in news reports), indicted Trump to face criminal charges for falsifying the money reimbursed to Michael Cohen as legal fees. The timing of this case and the publicity it generated shows that Trump is treated 'specially' not as an ordinary individual. The court seems to gauge the time in prosecuting this case; the court is presently rushed to conduct the process of selecting the jurors to get the prosecution going in a week or two, six months before the November presidential election.

Trump is also charged in Georgia and Washington DC for plotting to overturn his 2020 presidential election loss.  The Georgia case involves his action in urging people to question Georgia's vote counts and the Washington DC case is suggesting that Trump had incited the January 6th protest storming the capitol building. These civil charges are political relating to elections, yet the judge denies Trump's effort to delay the court prosecution so he can devote time to his 2024 election campaign. How hard is it for the judge to decide whether Trump's speech on January 6th had specifically urged his supporters to march to the capitol to protest as an official presidential order or a personal view related to his re-election campaign? Our constitution gives everyone, including the President, the freedom of speech, especially political speech. In this country, we have people advocating the secession of a state from the United States and we also have people advocating Independence for Texas, California, or Hawaii. These people are protected by our constitution, are they not?!
 
Trump has lost a civil case with a fine over $400 million and still faces 91 felony counts across two state courts and two different federal districts, any of which could potentially produce a prison sentence. Incredibly so many cases are charged against Donald Trump, fraud, hush money, election subversion, and classified documents in Mar-a-Largo residence, should we praise the DOJ for diligence or blame the DOJ for waiting so long to take action? Whether or not one supports Trump for President, one should give Trump a fair chance to campaign for re-election, and a fair fight against his Democrat opponent. Why is it only the Democrat prosecutors and judges pursuing charges against Trump while he is winning the Republican presidential nomination? Shouldn't Democrats be excused to take on the cases to avoid being impartial? Shouldn't these cases be delayed until after the election? 

Donald Trump is not above the law but prosecuting the cases against him currently is suspicious of political motivation, particularly when he is a successful presidential candidate. President Biden's mishandling of classified documents wasn't charged, why should Trump be charged before his re-election bid against Biden? The scandal cases against Trump were old cases raised before his presidency (2016-2020). Why wasn't he pardoned like President Clinton committing a scandal while in the White House? As an opposition party candidate for the presidency, supported by most Republicans and by a large popular vote, can't the DOJ at least postpone these cases until after the election? If Trump were not re-elected, the DOJ could prosecute the cases against him as a citizen. If he were re-elected, shouldn't he deserve a chance to be pardoned, if the Americans want him to run the country?



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The U.S.-China confrontation has become white-hot in recent years. The cause is created by the United States, and most of its tensions are caused by the United States. But the U.S. policy toward China is wrong. China is not a warmonger. The United States' anti-China policy is entirely based on its misjudgment of China. The author believes that the United States has made the following six major misjudgments about China, which will have terrible consequences.
 
1. The influence of Chinese history

The United States is a young great power, with a history of only 250 years. It was founded at the right time and in the right place; and did not go through great hardships. On the contrary, because it is in North America, far away from the Eurasian wars, it played a leading role in both world wars. By taking advantage of its remote location and delaying participation, they were able to make war profits and gain the status of a victor without bringing the war to its turf causing damages. The United States is relatively short-sighted and biased about history, which can be seen in its national education, light on the five thousand years of history of Asia, especially China, nearly ignored. It also often implements its foreign policy with the posture and mentality of the modern Western colonial empire. The relationship between the United States and China began just as the Manchu Qing Dynasty in China was weakening. The Chinese National Revolution had a treacherous path. The country struggled for nearly thirty years to establish a republic nation while the Western imperial powers were occupying China's cities and ports. After the founding of the People's Republic of China, there was still a civil war lasting nearly one hundred years dividing China across the Taiwan Strait. The United States does not understand nor appreciate China's history and its glorious achievements, and it only regards China as a backward undeveloped, or developing country based on its weakest national conditions. This misjudgment led to the U.S.- China policy that first focused on interfering with weak countries (weak governments) with the power of a large country, and then aimed at maintaining hegemony to prevent the rise of other countries (Japan, Germany, Russia, and China today). Now the U.S.-China relations have resulted in an unfavorable situation. Misjudgment of China's historical influence is a major reason.

2. Variability of the Communist Party of China

The United States’ anti-communist strategy began before World War II and has lasted nearly a hundred years. It regards all communist countries led by Soviet Russia as invariable enemy countries. The Soviet Socialist Republic established by the Communist Party of Soviet Russia did have attempts to expand worldwide. However, the Communist Party of China founded the party based on Marxism only to awaken the Chinese people to overthrow the Manchu Empire. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is a new independent party and has a strong history of its revolution and evolution. It did not blindly join the Soviet Communist Union. This can be seen in its clear break with the Soviet Republic in the 1960s. There are mistakes and successes in the evolution of the CCP, but it is undeniable that the CCP is by no means an immutable or invariant political party. Its early experiments, the subsequent efforts to keep a low profile and learn (crossing the river carefully by feeling the stones), and the current reforms and innovations are all proof that the CCP has been changing and progressing. The United States only remembers the tenacity of the Chinese Communist Army in the Korean War. It is a serious misjudgment to regard the CCP as an unchanging Soviet-style Communist Party. It failed to appreciate and approve the CCP's achievements in poverty alleviation, economic development, education elevation in science and technology, and strengthening the military for national defense, so after crushing the Soviets, the U.S. pointed the finger at China.
 
3. The purpose of China’s rise

China's rapid rise naturally has many basic factors. Looking back and analyzing, it is not difficult to understand some of the characteristics of the Chinese people, the influence of Chinese history, the organizational capabilities of the Communist Party of China, and the favorable international situation at the right time and place, which allows China the opportunity to rise with outstanding performance in economic development. But the main purpose of China's rise is to let the people live a better life. This purpose is also the driving force behind China's success. China is not rising to pursue hegemony nor to rival the United States for hegemony as wrongly judged by many American elites. China's military development is for defense rather than for aggression. This misjudgment has also seriously contributed to the deterioration of Sino-US relations today. The United States has adopted all-out measures to resist and suppress China’s continued development. These misjudgments which produced wrong strategies and policies not only failed to stop China's rise, but instead made the Chinese people resentful. Why can't the Chinese people have the goal of living a better life? The resilience and hard-working spirit of the Chinese people coupled with the success of China’s public education effort will enable China to continue to develop, no one can stop them.

4. China’s future development potential

China is a solid big country with sustainable economic power. Its 1.4 billion people are not only the world's largest productive force, but also the world's largest consumer market. This is because in the process of economic development, it started by promoting a labor-intensive low-end manufacturing industry with cheap labor, used its market to absorb foreign investment and technology to upgrade its industries, and used the education system to support industrial demand, so it could gradually improve its economic development with its periodic five-year development plans. Progress and success are seen in the strength of science and technology and industrial manufacturing even in space exploration. China can maintain an economic engine with dual cylinders (circulation), one, domestic consumption, and the other, external trade and export. China is currently the leading trading partner of more than 120 countries in the world, and its national economy is the second largest in the world. However, its per capita income is still 30-40% behind developed countries. Based on the goal of requiring the country's people to achieve a middle-class living standard, China's economic development still has a lot to accomplish. However, the United States misjudged this, tried its best to badmouth China, constantly promoted the theory of China's collapse, and hyped it in the media. But after 30 to 40 years of crying bear, the bear has not struck China. Africans now want to learn from the Chinese economic model, Europeans and South Americans are beginning to warm up to China, and Southeast Asians understand the benefit of not choosing sides. If the United States still wants to form cliques to suppress China, it may be a thankless task.
 
5. Misunderstandings about the Belt and Road Initiative

The international rivalry between China and the United States is indeed a struggle for influence among major powers. Since World War II, the United States has become the world's largest economy and the largest military power; and has naturally embarked on the path to world leadership. The United States Marshall Plan helped many countries recover after World War II and was welcomed by many countries. Today's rise of China will inevitably have an impact on the world. China has proposed the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), an economic construction plan. Its concept is based on the principle of mutual assistance (collaboration) and win-win economic development. China has manufacturing capabilities and infrastructure technologies (highway, railways, hydropower energy development, and communication engineering and facilities), the BRI can help other countries develop, and it can absorb China's overcapacity of production. It is a win-win program (no less than the Marshall Plan), but the United States has no intention of cooperating and instead slanders it with misinformation. This is another serious misjudgment that leads the United States to lose an opportunity for cooperation for mutual benefits and also a loss of opportunity for the United States and China to benefit mankind around the world. At present, China has 150 country members and organizations participating in BRI, but if the United States also participates, the effect will be even more amazing.

6. The illusion of Taiwan’s democratic system

Unfortunately, the United States’ misjudgment of China has pushed the United States onto an all-out anti-China path. With its century-old hegemonic behavior and habits, the United States cannot tolerate China's rapid rise, so it uses various means to contain China, deploying an island chain of military alliances, slandering China with human rights violations, and freedom restrictions, applying trade, technology and investment sanctions, and of course engaging diplomatic rivalry. Taiwan is part of China but is separated from the mainland. This is a legacy of the Chinese Civil War after World War II. After maintaining a vague attitude for many decades, the United States has changed its attitude in recent years and instigated Taiwan to resist and obstruct peaceful reunification. The U.S. Congress passed several bills to sell arms to Taiwan, but the United States has only wishful thinking that Taiwan’s democratic system is attractive to the mainland people. Glorifying Taiwan's elections and playing the Taiwan card can make the mainland people uneasy, hence disturbing the CCP. Anyone who has been to mainland China knows the patriotic sentiments of the Chinese people. The Chinese people have strong self-confidence. China's rejuvenation and ever-strength are inevitable, and so is the reunification of Taiwan with the Mainland. China will not fall for the fake tension created by the media.
 
The surge and loss of American self-confidence

The national chaos in the United States is obvious to all, internal violence and external war affairs are daily headlines. The two American parties are fighting for power without regard to the interests of the country and its people. Politicians focus entirely on winning votes. At present, both parties in the United States are blaming China to deflect domestic problems. On the one hand, they use enemies of war to pump people's patriotic sentiment, competitive spirit, and self-confidence. On the other hand, they are worried that Americans will wake up to reality and be unable to cope with reality, eventually losing self-confidence. The United States used NATO to provoke a war between Russia and Ukraine, but was unable to deal with the aftermath. The United States supports Israel's attack on the Hamas but cannot control Israel's genocide actions. The United States has undermined its own rules and lost confidence in free trade and market competition. The United States' prestige in the international community is waning, and it continues to rely on military power for deterrence, but the U.S. - China confrontation has shown that the U.S. has more ambition than ability, it knows that it is not sure of a victory against China. Its alliance strategy against China may not produce a core union because other members have different interests and dependence on China. If the U.S. persists with its ill-justified anti-China strategy, it may lead to a war with China, a possible nuclear World War III. The United States itself cannot stand aloof like two previous world wars. The war will come to the U.S. continent causing serious destruction.

Therefore, if the United States does not reflect on its China policies and change, the consequences will be a disaster for mankind. The wrong policies are the result of the above six misjudgments.  


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