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First Step of Improving US-China Relations

11/30/2024

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Dr. Wordman
​ 
Today, China is athe fast- rising economy growing with twice the growth rate of the U.S. GDP, becoming the number two economy inof the world. The U.S. declares China as the most critical competitor and adopts a hostile China policy in diplomacy, waging sanctions oin trade and technology, and formulating military alliances against China. The US-China relations areis the worst ever since the nineteenth century. The projection of their future is very  pessimistic – destined to war, a possible WW III.  Shouldn't the U.S. rethink its China policy, especially under the concept of national security?
 
Recently, a distinguished professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy of Tufts University, Dr. Daniel Drezner, has published an essay, entitled “How Everything Became National Security and National Security Became Everything” in Foreign Affairs on August 12, 2024.  This article is a piece of timely advice to the U.S. Administration and political arena while the  U.S. and its allies are actively involved in the Russian-Ukraine war and the Israel-Ham Mass and Middle East crisis. In addition, the U.S. Congress and Administration is orchestrating a third hot spot in the Taiwan Strait all under the 'national security consideration'.  Professor Drezner took a historical view to describe that 'national security' was never precisely defined since the Revolution, the era of George Washington. The U.S. government manages its budget according to its domestic and international concerns. The size of the funding for national security was greatly expanded at the start of the Cold War when the 1947 National Security Act was enacted even though the law never defined the term, 'national security' according to Prof. Drezner.  Except for a brief pause when tension with the Soviets reduced in the end of 60's, national security has grown unbounded to include energy security (triggered by the 1973 oil embargo),  economic threat (1985 Plaza Accord with Germany and Japan), geopolitical conflict (NATO and Warsaw confrontation till the 1991 Soviet collapse),  terrorists threat (9/11 attack in 2001 and war on terror), import and technology threat (ransomware of communication equipment, critical minerals, and  semiconductors). The scope of national security has kept expanding to include climate change, the pandemic, Chinese scholars, infrastructure, electric cars, TikTok,  artificial intelligence, and quantum computing. Prof. Drezner stated:  Policy entrepreneurs across the political spectrum want the administration, members of Congress, and other shapers of U.S. foreign policy to label their issue a national security priority, in the hope of gaining more attention and resources. American populists and nationalists tend to see everything as a national security threat.
 
The U.S.  China policy is a direct result of “Everything Became National Security”. The current Administration and Congress of its two parties have irrationally enacted laws and policies against China in a manner, that “national security became everything”. Comes to the China issue, national security is applied to Chinese Americans discriminately; 'the China initiative' was enacted to target Chinese scholars and researchers working in the  U.S. higher education institutions. The China Initiative was ruled unconstitutional by the judicial branch and yet is being revived in Congress under a disguise (HR 1308, Protect America's Innovation and Economic Security Act of 2024). The purpose of diplomatic relations isare supposed to improve the two countries’ interaction but the U.S. sends its ex-CIA director as ambassador to China whereas China sends a career diplomat trained in protocols and diplomacy as ambassador to the U.S.   In Chinese philosophy, China is a nation of manners (礼仪之邦)and a nation of trust(信义之邦), hence it values and respects diplomatic relations. However, the U.S. seems to be spoiled by its power to act unilaterally with its interpretation of national security for everything. China's concern aboutof its shipping lane in the South China Sea (60% of its imports and exports  passing through SCS) was met with U.S. freedom of navigation (passing with carriers and battleships) and its ally Philippines' sabotage of China's effort to establish a rule of conduct in SCS among 10 ASEAN nations. It is true that China has indeed improved its navy, but it is entirely reasonable for China to have a naval defense force based on its history (humiliated by the Western powers and Japan in the past two centuries) and current US designed island chain military bases around China's coast lines. Just recall the Cuba Missile crisis, one should appreciate how China feels about the U.S. national security interpretation in the China seas. China's military build-up can be easily traced to its national security concerns (Britain, Russia, and Japan's invasion in the past and the current U.S. and its allies, AUKUS, QUAD, JASKUS anti-China military and diplomatic threat.) Can the U.S. apply its national security strategy in such an unfair notion forever? Yes, perhaps it can by maintaining its super military power, but at what expense? Thirty-five two trillion national debts? Plateaued or even a decline of the US economy? The wWorld constantly in wars? Always worried about a rising power with nuclear weapons and advanced technologies?
 
Present USus-Cchina relations areis on the wrong track mainly because of (1) its false assumption about China, (2) its legacy attitude towards rising nations, and (3) its using national security as an excuse for hegemony policy and behavior. The end result is either by spending enormous resources to maintain its hegemony power at the expense of its citizens' welfare and national prosperity or engaging in war eventually to mutual destruction. The US with its rich resources was able to rise to a superpower status for nearly more than one century, why it is so afraid of a rising China? If China can rise from a collapsed dynasty and from one of the poorest countriesy in the world without waging a war against anyone, why can't the U.S. maintain its superpower status peacefully without engaging in a false national security policy to rival China to mutual destruction rather than accepting a peaceful competitive relationship with China?   
 
Drezner recognized that by ceaselessly accumulating national security concerns (expanding its scope (such as the China initiative, freedom of navigation for carriers, and sanctioning a broad range of supply chain exports) has actually rendered national security increasingly meaningless. Huawei's phones or 5G equipment are not a national security threat, only when Israel applying its unilaterally defined national security concern (very much the same way as the U.S. applies!) decided to use the terror bomb (civilian  BP BCall explosion) indiscriminately in Lebanon, the BPBC device becomes a national security threat. The U.S. felt helpless in trying to stop the Israelis' terrorist acts. Looking at US allies, Japan is expanding its defense military to possess attack military force, would Japan apply a similar national security concern tolike the U.S. and the Israel to expand its military capability? Would this raise China's concern forof its national security? Shouldn't we rethink our national security concern and its influence onto our allies and the world? Are we misusing national security to create more national security concerns leading our world to more insecurity?! 

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​Chips for Trump Administration for Achieving MAGA and MAWGA

11/23/2024

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Dr. Wordman

Significance of Trump's Victory
 
Trump has won the 2024 U.S. presidential election to become the 47th U.S. president. Trump's victory is historical; he is the only American president returning to the White House with a landslide victory after being defeated after his first term. The 2024 presidential election was the costliest ($35B), with the richest individuals vested (Donors) in this election. But Trump won on his 'Make America Great Again' (MAGA) slogan, which he introduced in his 2016 presidential bid. MAGA is a great slogan that resonates with Americans, the working class, especially the more conservative population. Thus, Trump's mandate from the 2024 election came from MAGA supporters despite the heavy money contributions coming from the wealthy. Trump does not have the term pressure (to win a second term to prove his worth like every first-term president. Trump now has the advantage of being a learned and experienced president, mandated by a majority of American people to focus on MAGA.
 
MAGA contains very specific goals (strengthen the American economy to make Americans live better, modernize American infrastructure to be the best} and implies some expectations (retain world leadership and enhance the U.S. prestige in the world arena by 'Making All World Great Again' (MAWGA). The mandate that Americans give to the new president is to achieve not only MAGA but also MAWGA. Therefore, Trump, with his historical victory, has a unique opportunity to focus on MAGA and MAWGA in his 2025-2028 term. On mission, goals, and objectives, MAGA and MAWGA are aligned, correlated, and have some mutual dependency. If Trump is successful with MAGA goals, he might go down in history as a great American President, but if he could initiate the right policies for MAWGA and made headway, he might be remembered as one of the greatest American presidents (compared to President Roosevelt), possibly receiving a mandate to serve another term (with a constitution amendment).    
 
President Trump's victory over Harris in the popular vote (74+M: 70+M) and electoral college (312: 212) also came with most Republicans in the Senate (49R: 47D: 4Ind), House (220R: 212D: 3TBD due to resignation and death) and Governorship (27R: 23D). Thus, Trump has a full mandate and a great support base to accomplish his MAGA driven and MAWGA motivated goals. To achieve MAGA and MAWGA, Trump can take a fresh start away from Biden's poor performance and his first term's mistakes. As suggested by this paper's title, we may analyze what chips the Trump Administration has to launch programs and policies to accomplish MAGA and MAWGA goals. As a successful and experienced business executive, Trump is used to counting his chips and making his bids, decisions, and actions. In the following, we will make an organic-view analysis of what chips the Trump Administration may have to deal with domestic issues and foreign affairs to achieve the above twin goals.
 
The MAGA movement
 
MAGA has spoken and given Trump a landslide victory. Trump must cherish the MAGA spirit to unite the country to work towards MAGA goals. Trump learned a lot from his first term from 2016 to 2020 in the White House, as shown by his deeds. In Biden's four years from 2020 to 2024, we can see the failures in his Administration both on domestic programs and foreign policies. (Note: some were inherited from Trump's term, such as tariffs and sanctions.) Eight years seem to be short and fast, but the world has changed drastically. The major powers all changed, and most significantly, China made great progress despite the anti-China policy launched by the U.S. with its allies. The U.S. is now facing the challenge of MAGA while the world is in disarray, and very much needed repair with the MAWGA plan. The anti-China policy was based on an obsolete ideological thesis that never would have worked. The U.S. must adopt a fresh win-win China policy that can help the U.S. win MAGA and collaborate with China to win MAWGA.
 
The U.S.-China relation is the most critical international relation for the U.S. The legacy view that the U.S. must suppress anyone who is challenging the U.S.’s supremacy position is obsolete. Although the U.S. is still the number one military power in the world, China has risen not only with strong defense capabilities in its Army, Navy, Air, and Missile Forces, but it has also advanced in space/satellite technologies, allowing China to have its independent global position system, Beidou, superior communication networks, 5G and 6G, high-speed rail infrastructure, efficient electricity grid system, and supersonic intercontinental missiles. Biden's 'alliance strategy' (AUKUS, QUAD+, NATO+, etc.) could not deter nor win China for sure. China was never aggressive in the first place, the Cold War mentality of fighting Russia and China only led to a world disaster today. (EU needs resuscitation, NATO is too expensive to maintain, and luring Russia to fight China is a bygone strategy given G8 to G7, BRICS' expansion, and the failure of the Ukraine war.) Russia is too dependent on a peaceful China today to bid on the U.S. or EU's game plan. Hence, the wisest strategy for the Trump Administration is adopting a win-win China policy to help the U.S. win MAGA and MAWGA while China would feel comfortable participating. This is the best strategy to maintain the U.S. as a superpower and a world leader.
 
The Chips for Achieving MAGA and MAWGA
 
Trump initiated tariff and trade wars in his first term, but they had been proven ineffective against China in the past two U.S. administrations. Other nations dare not declare a trade war against the U.S., but China, as the number one trading partner of over 130 countries, has strong industrial resiliency, manufacturing power, and economic base to deal with any economic sanctions the U.S. and its Allies applied against her. In fact, in the past eight years, China has advanced faster than any nation in most technology areas, the more sanctions applied against China, the more it becomes self-sufficient. So, the U.S. must wisely count its chips and adopt a win-win China policy to benefit MAGA and MAWGA. Trump Administration does have some chips to use to win MAGA and MAWGA by dealing and collaborating with China. We list them below:
 
    A. Taiwan Chip: Yes, Taiwan is a no-cost usable chip for the U.S. to develop a win-win China policy. The U.S. wisely maintained a fuzzy Taiwan policy in the past seven decades. The economic development cycles of Taiwan and Mainland China staggered in time. China started decades late but eventually overtook Taiwan in GDP growth. China wisely wanted to reunite with Taiwan peacefully, but the minority pro-independence party (DPP) currently in power is seeking U.S. (Biden's Adm) military support. The U.S. should not engage in such a risky conflict; rather, it could take a position to help Mainland and Taiwan to reunite peacefully in exchange for a beneficial partnership with Mainland and Taiwan in technologies, manufacturing, and investment to help MAGA and MAWGA.
     B. Japan and S Korea Chip: Japan and S. Korea have trade dependencies on the U.S. and China. Biden’s alliance strategy to sanction China basically failed, making Japan and S. Korea nervous about maintaining relations with China and the U.S. By resetting the objectives, Trump's Administration can build a new QUAD (Japan, S Korea, China, and the U.S.) for cooperation in trade, climate, energy or any other domain to help achieve MAGA and MAWGA goals.
    C. NATO and EU Chip: The negative impact of misusing these chips with the Cold War mentality by the Biden Administration was clearly seen. Trump has an opportunity to propose peace plans to settle the Ukraine-Russia war and Israel-Hamas conflict to save money from the Cold War tactics and apply to MAGA and MAWGA projects.
    D. U.S. infrastructure development Chip: This domestic program is a key element for MAGA. Trump can invite China to participate in the U.S. infrastructure upgrade programs and offer to be a partner in China's BRI – a win-win strategy. The U.S. would save money and gain efficiency in achieving MAGA, China would be happy for the job opportunity, and the U.S. can have a significant role in the global BRI program, particularly in North and South America, to create win-win opportunities helpful for MAWGA and gaining world prestige.
    E. Advanced Technology Chip: Turning fierce competition into collaboration is key to success. Advanced technology development depends on people’s talent and capital. The U.S. can leverage what it has to collaborate with China, for example, in Medical and health sciences and space exploration.
    F. Negative Chips: In adopting a win-win China policy, Trump must avoid some 'negative' chips, such as (1) Biden's Alliance Strategy, which is costly and harms MAGA and MAWGA. (2) Biden's identity politics, which divides the nation. (3) Hawks on China appearing on its not-welcome list, ex. Pompeo, Rubio, Pelosi, ... (4) Sanction and extreme tariff on electric cars. A careful study must be made before making policy decisions since this industry is a critical one for MAGA and MAWGA.
 
In conclusion, the Trump Administration has a great chance to set the right policies and use the right chips to accomplish MAGA and MAWGA in the 47th U.S. Presidency!



​
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MAGA Won Democracy Failed Principles Processes Primaries Need to Be Revamped

11/16/2024

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Dr. Wordman
​
Congratulations to President Donald Trump for winning the 47th U.S. Presidency. There is no question that it is a win by MAGA, the great slogan of making America great again. Trump's victory is a call by Americans (more blue-collar, conservative citizens and young men than elites) who recognize that America is in decline, the government is ineffective, the economy is going to be worse, and the current Administration has failed both in domestic issues as well as in foreign policies. The decline of US influence on the world stage may not have a direct impact on American citizens, still, the shrinking buying power due to higher inflation and bad trade policies does correlate with the U.S. economy.  The poorly planned sanctions against China (Such as tariff, trade, export restrictions, and advance technology sanctions are backfiring and hurting Americans), ill-conceived foreign wars (such as the Ukraine war against Russia and Israel-Hamas conflict against Middle East peace), and unnecessary aggressive effort in creating a new Cold War by leading NATO to Asia and initiating new military alliances. All demonstrated a failed hegemony foreign policy dragging down U.S. prosperity.
 
MAGA is an inspiring slogan that helped Trump to win the 2016 (45th) U.S. Presidency. As a dark horse (not a member of the establishment), Trump surprised the establishment and won; he tried to act on his intelligence and instincts (along with his personality) to lead the country. He did some things right and some things wrong; he has learned a lot in his four years in the White House and revealed his 'apolitical' manners (words, gestures, and deeds). Trump narrowly lost his second-term bid to Biden because of that, as well as the impact of the COVID pandemic. Trump felt he deserved a second term and vowed to retake the presidency despite the media’s low ranking in opinion polls. Trump worked very hard for the past four years, first by convincing the Republican Party with his MAGA strategy and then by winning the grassroots of the party members spreading through the working class. Despite the lawsuits he faced, Trump demonstrated that he is a fighter, an intelligent fighter who never caved in to external pressures or political or judicial forces. So, Trump's victory represents a resonance with the Americans who look beyond Trump's faults, particularly his bad manners, and recognize his fighting spirit very much needed in the MAGA movement.
 
Trump won the electoral votes by 277+:226+, a healthy margin. He will have a strong republican Senate of 51+:43+ and a House of 191+:169+. At the time of writing of this article, Trump's campaign team is celebrating a victory party at Mar-A-Largo. House Speaker is flying to Florida to join the victory party. Although every presidential election is a historical event, Trump's win of the 47th U.S. Presidency can be said to be historical with a worldwide impact since the future of the world has been at a crossroads regarding how to face the rising China. Trump may have an opportunity to fulfill the early goals of MAGA as well as to lead the world into a better future. One of the most important international relations is the US-China relations. While the US election politics has created an atmosphere of blaming China for the U.S. problems, unfortunately, with a bi-partisan united stand, in reality, political elites around the world (including some well-known Americans) know very well that China's rise was peaceful, and its projected future path would also be peaceful if she was not threatened by any major foreign power, for example, UK, Russia, Japan, U.S. or India in the past. Therefore, Trump has an opportunity to correct a false anti-China strategy to lead the world with a win-win China policy, which can enhance MAGA and initiate a MAWGA (Make All World Great Again) future.
 
The title of this article covers three parts; the above addresses the MAGA victory. To many Americans, democrats and some republicans, even many international citizens, this election sends a message that democracy failed. Harris campaigned with a slogan, “Defend Democracy,” but she failed with the Democratic party and the full U.S. Administration behind her. In this article, the author emphasizes that the phrase “Democracy Failed” means a fundamental failure of the U.S. democratic system: its principles, processes, and primaries, after it has been practiced over two and half centuries. The principle of democracy should be 'majority rules,' the processes of democracy were supposed to be galvanizing opinions and forming consensus, and the primaries should be effective in educating the voters so they would and could make better judgments. This author has written previously about the need for a revamp of the election/voting system, which must adhere to the 'majority rules' principle, utilize technologies (including a smart voting phone for each eligible voter) to make sure that citizens are assisted (with technology) to make intelligent and informed votes and the entire voting population would engage in the voting process with multiple (almost unlimited within technology capability) primaries to gain knowledge, to galvanizing consensus opinions, and to cast an informed vote.
 
The current US democratic system cultivated under liberalism is fundamentally a divisive system over-protecting individual ideas and rights and diminishes the principle of majority rules (primaries and elections could not galvanize opinions, and votes did not make majority-ruled decisions). With today's technological advances, the entire democratic system can be revamped with the following changes: 1. Each voter is guaranteed to be given a government-certified and supplied voting (smart) phone with three APPs, one to conduct and participate in private and public polls and two to search officially registered campaign information and no-Ads media election-related news and three to participate in the multiple (educational and galvanizing) primaries and greater guaranteed majority-ruled election processes and results. 2. Each citizen is obligated to register and receive an intelligent voting phone. Legislation should be made to require each citizen to use the voting phone to vote so to allow big data processing (same as obligations to pay taxes). All elections are run with government funding. Candidates are qualified and filtered by election law and multiple primaries to guarantee capable candidates appear on the ballots.
 
The talks about violence and post-election unrest were intimidating in the recent presidential elections. Thank goodness, the outcome of the U.S. 2024 presidential election was peaceful, but we knew the deficiencies of our current system: The dependency on fund-raising and how money could influence elections, how ineffective current primaries are, and how media under the influence of private money are making unfair impacts on the election processes. The lack of a galvanizing process not only divides society but also encourages violence, such as assassinations. We do not get good candidates for each election, and we produce election results that do not always follow the majority rules principle. (a simple example is that we cannot get a high-speed railroad built for the majority's wishes, a devastating problem for upgrading the U.S. infrastructure.) As we are celebrating the successful election of the 47th US president, let's look forward to improving our election system by adhering to the election principles and improving our voting processes and primaries. 
              
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