A recent Brookings commentary essay, “Comparing Global Views of the United States and China during the Trump and Biden Administrations”, authored by Jessica Shao and Patricia M. Kim on July 23, 2024, in Brookings.edu, is a well-researched paper containing far more information (hidden to be deduced) than the lengthy discussion presented under the title. Shao and Kim did an excellent job of collecting and comparing the global opinion survey data from 2017 to 2024 covering the Trump and Biden Administrations. They did a fair analysis and comparison of the data. Still, they were shy in peeling the onion to reveal the inner tender flesh and true colors which may tell a story not aligned with 'political correctness'. With the U.S. allocating billions of dollars to the media industry to shape its voice through checkbook journalism, it is unsurprising that few media professionals would be willing to peel the onion and sting their eyes with no paycheck. This US-China Forum column receives no funds from any government or business institution, pays no checks to authors, and publishes unique papers that peel the onion to offer you organic views and flavor.
Collection and analysis of survey results from Pew Research, BBC World Service Poll, and Gallop World Leaders Report focusing on Trump and Biden Administrations from 2017-2024 by Jessica and Patricia is a timely work given the Biden-Trump rematch is turning into a Trump-Harris presidential competition for the coming three and half months. Biden had to bow out partly because of his physical reason, partly due to the impact of the assassination attempt on Trump's life while campaigning in Pennsylvania, and most importantly due to the world and US political waves that have changed the public perception of the U.S. and China recently. The US-China relationship has drawn attention in the 2024 US presidential election not only because it is the most important US foreign relationship but also because of its impact on the US economy and its influence on world leadership. Therefore, the above-mentioned world surveys must be analyzed with deep poking and extrapolation beyond their survey end dates well into the rest of 2024 including the November US presidential election.
The U.S. and China are competing in many domains and all aspects, but most importantly they are competing for world leadership or global influence. Pew's 2017 survey showed less than 50% of 37 countries surveyed viewed the U.S. (under Trump) positively compared to 64% at the end of Obama's term. Pew's Global Attitude Survey further showed the decline of the US reputation (Trump era, 2017-2020) even below that of Xi Jinping (US <29% and China <35%) and a huge rise during Biden's term, 73% in 2021, but steadily declined to 42% (2024), while China maintained about 18-20% but rose to 23% in 2024. The absolute numbers cannot have much significance judging from the large jump in U.S. reputation from Trump's to Biden's term and relatively flat but low ratings for China over the same period. We must correlate the above trend (timeline) data with what happened in foreign affairs and domestic politics (significant blunders and accomplishments) in each era during Trump to Biden and Xi's Administrations.
Most people would agree with the interpretation that Trump's policies, such as pulling out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), World Health Organization (WHO), Paris Climate Agreement, immigration policies, support of NATO and trade tariff against China and allies as well as his management of the COVID epidemic, have contributed to Trump era's decline of U.S. reputation. On the flip side, we would not be surprised by better survey results for Biden's era since he is strengthening ties with allies (in NATO, Europe, and Indo-Pacific through alliances of AUKUS, QUAD+, etc.) in his Administration. The rapid decline of the U.S. reputation in Biden's remaining term is caused by the wars in Ukraine (2-24-2022) and in Israel and Gaza (10-7-2023) which the U.S. failed to prevent or stop. The above-mentioned trend data are thus explainable for the Trump-Biden Presidencies, but the survey on China's reputation and/or global leadership is far from matching the truth. First, the relatively low ratings in China's reputation and its small change in trend data over nearly a decade are suspect of a biased survey formula. For example, the opinions of the huge Chinese population worldwide in Africa, South America, Europe, and Asia were never properly sampled, included, or compared with the data surveyed in the 37 countries on China's reputation.
China's global leadership and international reputation cannot be simply tied to Xi's reputation and popularity. Yes, Xi is in charge as China's most powerful leader, but he has no exposure as American Presidents do through their presidential elections with billions of dollars spent on campaigns and promotions. Xi would not be well known to the world especially to the Americans and Europeans as any American president does. (Xi gets more negative news reports generated by the Western mass media) So the Western media's survey and rating on Xi vs Trump and Biden is not very significant at all. In comparing nations, China is at a disadvantage in the West-controlled global media. So, we must dig into the organic media to find the facts and relevant data that can shape true public opinion and correct any inadequacy in the survey results. The best way (as done above) is to use the leader's or his government's deeds and achievements to correlate with the survey results.
The relatively low and small changes in China's (Xi's) reputation have to be interpreted as due to low media coverage of China or Xi, especially on their positive accomplishments. We can pick a few important categories from the organic media to support our arguments with facts and data. First, China has lifted almost one billion people from poverty based on UN statistics. Yet this is not widely reported never mind promoted by the Western media. China has the best record of COVID management in terms of lowest death rate and high recovery rate compared to the U.S. and many other Western countries; the media hardly gave any credit to China but focused on the economic slowdown. In Science, China now makes the most contribution in patents and referenced publications, but the Western media hardly covers China's accomplishments such as its space station with astronauts, exploration on the Moon's dark side, and its Beidou GPS benefiting ocean navigation. China's Bridge and Road Initiative (BRI program) attracted 135 countries and international organizations to expand infrastructure in transportation, communication, and commerce all for economic development. The world media instead of reporting these positive facts, often choose to focus on smearing. High-speed rails were built in Southeast Asia by China and Electric buses were exported to European cities to save energy and reduce pollution, but they are not factored in surveys as beneficial global programs at all. How can one get a fair opinion on global leadership and national reputation then?
The U.S. is too used to designing its policies, domestic and foreign policies, based on national security concerns which are hinged on maintaining U.S. supremacy. Unfortunately, that strategy creates and drives a powerful military-industry complex by seeking enemies and winning wars to maintain US supremacy. The world is only slowly understanding the U.S. model and its national strategy, In contrast, China has never initiated any war in the past six decades. Instead, China devotes efforts to achieving peace through diplomacy, for example, on March 10, 2023, China successfully brokered Iran and Saudi Arabia to sign an agreement in Beijing to reestablish a diplomatic relationship despite decades of hostile confrontation. Another significant accomplishment by China was that fourteen Palestinian factions including Hamas and Fatah signed a declaration in Beijing after talks from July 21-23, 2024, ending division and strengthening Palestinian unity. This paves the way for establishing a Palestinian State to be recognized by the United Nations. This is a major accomplishment by China demonstrating her world leadership. The above facts speak volumes in comparing world leadership between the U.S. and China. It is also evidence for global citizens to read public opinion surveys with a pinch of salt and the need to consult organic media.
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