Ifay Chang, China-US Forum bilingual columnist
It can be said that the evolution path of Sino-US relations is not difficult to predict based on the accumulation of historical events. Although China and the United States are both big countries, they are located on opposite sides of the world and separated by the Pacific Ocean. There are no direct territorial disputes or resource entanglement. However, conflicts of diplomatic, trade, and economic interests between big countries are inevitable. The U.S. was founded only 250 years ago, but it has been extremely successful. The country's expansion and growth in strength in the past 150 years can be said to be unprecedented, and it has become the world's most powerful nation. In the past 150 years, China has transformed from a weakened dynasty to a republic China. But it was invaded and humiliated by the world's powers for more than seven decades. It took more than one hundred years of hardship and hard work to unify the mainland and embark on the road of independence and rejuvenation. Therefore, U.S.-China relations have always had a natural tendency for the U.S. to look down on China. During World War II, the U.S. entered the war late and declared war on Japan for its attack on Pearl Harbor; and China had the best relationship with the U.S. at that time in allying to fight Japan. After Japan surrendered, a civil war broke out in China. The Communist Party and the Kuomintang fought for power. The U.S. chose to side with the Kuomintang. In the following cross-strait confrontation till today, the U.S. chose to recognize One China but maintained ambiguous US-Taiwan relations.
During the cross-strait confrontation, Taiwan shifted from 'counterattacking the mainland' strategy to committing to implementing 'the Three People's Principles' policy to develop its economy. The Chinese Communist Party unified the mainland and consolidated all its people to develop the economy. Although it started late and rocky, the massive land and massive people were energized with correct policies, and the economy grew rapidly and eventually became the world's second-largest economy. This has caused the U.S. to worry, and it has turned from 'looking down' to 'looking level' at China with anxiety. Especially, the U.S. feels that its hegemonic leadership over the world is hindered and it cannot always do as it pleases. Therefore, it regards China as a competitor and uses all its strength to suppress China's rise. Trade tariffs, financial and technology sanctions, and military alliances have become a state of bullying. China has gone from appreciating favors in trade with the U.S. to tolerating pressures from it then to protesting sanctions and to resisting and fighting back. Nowadays, China is in a situation where it must counterattack to protect its economy.
The U.S. strategy has its consistency. Since the 20th century, the U.S. has become the world's largest economy, once accounting for 40% of the world's total. It is natural for the world's largest economy to lead the world, however, holding the banner of fairness and justice but not accepting fair competition is a big mistake made by the U.S. in its diplomatic handling of international affairs. Militarily, the U.S. has been constantly developing arms and has the strongest military power and military-industrial enterprises in the world. Internationally, the U.S. applies regulations to restrict other countries from developing their military, but itself often use military force to arbitrate international disputes, and sometimes use it to interfere in the politics of other countries and create unrest. The U.S. approach is accepted by NATO, Japan, South Korea, the Five Eyes Alliance, etc. with little choice since they are under US control, but it will meet resistance in rising countries.
China is the largest developing country and the country with the fastest progress. Facing the U.S. hegemony and its bullying practice, China often reflects ardently Therefore, there are different opinions in the country, ranging from 'blaming it on itself' (not keeping a low profile), to having touched the nerves of the U.S. or violated the rules of a major power. It wasn’t until tolerance brought more sanctions and suppression, and even led to the US policy of organizing international alliances targeting China, that China’s vigilance was awakened. The U.S. apparently respects hard punches, not soft measures or tolerance. China realizes that only counterattack can stop bullying. Although the Chinese do not like the behavior of tit for tat or eye for eye, after the U.S. launched the semiconductor supply cutoff policy and created the Asia-Pacific Quad Alliance to target China, China realized that it had to fight back.
Today's Sino-US relationship is a virtual hedging. Although the U.S. does not refer to China as an enemy on the surface, its strategy is like that of dealing with the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Afraid that it would not be powerful enough to contain China with the two island chains in the Asia-Pacific, the U.S. launched two Indo-Pacific strategic alliances (AUKUS and QUAD+), one alliance between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the U.S., and another integrating Japan, India, Australia, the U.S., and the Philippines. These alliances are aimed at controlling and containing China's coastline. As if this is not enough, the U.S. has also pushed NATO which it controls to extend to Asia, into Central Asia, and the South Korean Peninsula. This strategy is indeed very threatening in terms of posture, but these alliance members are closely dependent on China's market and trade, hence they are not willing to voluntarily sacrifice as American pawns. In addition, China maintains friendly and even strategic partnerships with Russia, Iran, and neighboring countries in Central Asia and the Middle East, so China will not be isolated. Militarily, the modernization of China's navy and air force had been quite mature, and it would have a great chance of winning if fighting through the island chain occurred. Therefore, it is not difficult to understand that in the U.S.-China confrontation, the U.S. strives to keep the dialogue mechanism with the highest level of China (including military leaders) open to prevent any conflict from going off the rails and getting out of control.
Sino-US hedging is by no means a case of Thucydides’ Trap. China and the U.S. have no direct territorial borders or disputes. What the two countries compete for is world influence. The Pacific is big enough, and the world is big enough, allowing the two major countries to pursue a path of mutual benefits – that is co-prosperity and peaceful coexistence. Rational analysis shows that two big nations fighting against each other will hurt both sides and may even destroy the world. Peaceful competition, on the other hand, can be pursued based on the Olympic spirit. During the US election, a 20-year-old young man shot the presidential candidate, Trump. Should we not only understand the mental health state of this young man but also conduct some tests on the mental health of presidential candidates? What people around the world should hope for is that world leaders will make rational analyses and sane decisions!
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