3. Like a developed country, the senior population is increasing each year due to high longevity or better healthcare. In 2024, China had 10,930,000 deaths, which is 170,000 less than the 2023 figure (0.153% drop). This could be attributed to better healthcare or longevity factors; less death contributes to the aging population, but the death figure of 10,930,000 is higher than the birth figure of 9,540,000 by 1,390,000 (and 0.153% is less than 0.576%), which means in 2024, the dragon year, the net population is down but not aging. However, out of the total population of 1,411,750,000, the productive group is 60.77%, senior (>60) is 21.98%, and under-age is 17%, the government still likes to see an increase in newborns since the senior group will increase because of longevity. The senior above 65 in China is 220,230,000 in 2024, 15.6% of the total population. This number has been continuously increasing from 90,000,000 (year 2000) to the 2024 figure (144.7%), whereas the US figure for seniors above 65 has grown 38.6% from 2010-2020 (China 54.1% correspondingly). Understandably, China is concerned with the aging issue.
4. China's male population is always more than female, but it has been reducing from 2000-2022. In 2024, the male population is 719,090,000, and the female population is 698,190,000 (104.34: 100 ratio). This ratio is considered good from marriage, children, and family point of view. In 2024, the reduction of the male population is 1,230,000, and only 160,000 reduction of females. Perhaps we will see fewer dating dramas from China than movies about families raising children. There is no detailed breakdown data on male productive groups and female productive groups, presumably because China has no discrimination against women entering the workforce. In general, maternity leave is generous, and seniors are more available to take care of babies in China.
5. Another concern of population change is the city population versus the rural population in China. In 2010, China's city and rural populations were about equal, approximately 670,000,000, but they grew differently to city 943,500,000 (increase of 10,830,000 over 2023) and rural 464,780,000 decrease of 12,220,000 over 2023). The city population is 67% of the total population, which increased 0.84% over the 2023 figure. This rapid shift has a tremendous social impact and demand on government services from housing, education, transportation, and healthcare in the cities, and problems of insufficient workers in rural areas.
From the above data and analysis, one can draw some conclusions. For a nation to manage its economic development to grow in a steady state, managing population and track its separate groups is necessary to maintain (1) a healthy productivity growth and a right-size productive population, (2) a reasonable age distribution with appropriate aging rate and birth rate, and (3) plans for infrastructure and social services in anticipating the shift of population in cities and rural areas. It is interesting to note that China, with its rigorous planning processes, has achieved decades of GDP growth as well as modernized its infrastructure, industries, and defense capabilities. This draws some China experts and national strategists to narrate a 'fear China' story and drive an anti-China policy. On the other hand, there is also a group of China experts and national strategists painting China as a doomsday scenario with housing problems (bubble to burst), over-production issues (eventually crashing the world’s economy), and financial instability with huge debts. Some even claim China's collapse is imminent. These claims are somewhat contradictory viewpoints. There is no reason that the U.S. and China cannot have a collaborative relationship since they are two similar large countries facing population management and productivity.
Both countries must manage their population to maintain competitiveness. China recognizes the need to manage its population to maintain productivity, and she faces population shrinkage, an aging problem, and a low birthrate, as well as the need to adjust government services to meet the demand of population shift, like the increase of city population. The U.S. also must manage its population to maintain competitiveness. The U.S. has a set of problems different from China's. These problems are not caused by China, giving no reason for maintaining a hostile US-China relationship. The first issue related to the population in the U.S. is the immigrant problem. The government needs to have a set of immigration laws that help the U.S. maintain the right size of population and the needed productivity. Sure, illegal immigrants must be stopped, but more importantly, right immigrants must be encouraged. The U.S. also has a low birth rate and an aging population issue. It makes a lot of sense for the US and China to cooperate in healthcare (medicine, senior care, etc.) rather than pointing fingers at drug problems. The two countries must recognize that drugs are causing productivity loss and shifting the population to unproductive categories. The U.S. also faces the same problem of training the needed workers in the productive group. However, one should realize that adopting a complementary approach is more beneficial than taking a hostile approach. What is the benefit for the U.S. to drive away the Chinese talented students who study in the U.S.? Why is it more advantageous for China to duplicate talents in every field that existed elsewhere? None! In the big picture of managing the national population, it is best to cooperate and share talents. Both the U.S. and China need to maintain full employment, but their net productivity is better for the world when they are more complementary than being duplicated or redundant.
In conclusion, every country faces many issues in managing its population to be productive and content with a 'balancing act' adjusted by the government according to the condition and resources the nation has. The U.S. has persuaded the TSMC Corporation of Taiwan to build semiconductor factories in Arizona, the problems it faces lend support to our argument here: duplication is not productive. Immigration is one of the effective adjustments the U.S. used successfully in the ‘50s, ‘60s, and ‘70s; exchange programs are another adjustment benefitting mutually. We must admit that no government system is perfect. The idea of democracy (People are the masters of the nation.) should endorse the concept that the government's responsibility is just to manage its people population to be productive and content with the assumption that people may want to move by legal immigration process.
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