In our mass media, there is plenty of shocking news in 2024. The Ukraine-Russia war has extended from Ukraine to Russia and the Israel-Hamas war has continued and spread to Lebanon. As an election year for the U.S., we had assassination attempts not once but twice on a presidential candidate, former president Donald Trump, and the theatrical bow-out of President Joe Biden giving Vice President Kamala Harris a chance to substitute him as the Democrat presidential candidate. These widely reported news though have more near-term impact, still their long-term significance has no comparison to the event of China's Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) launch on September 25th, 2024, even though the Western media have given it low-key coverage. After China demonstrated its ICBM capability 44 years ago, China became the third nation with ICBM capability. The power of ICBM being able to carry nuclear warheads and deliver them across continents or oceans is very significant in the good sense that ICBM has become a deterrent weapon preventing major wars from erupting into world wars. Unfortunately, the world's major powers like the UK and France (two other UN Security Council members) and three other nations chose to develop their ICBM capability to boost their standing on the world stage. Therefore, ICBM launch and testing remain important military developments.
Russia was the first nation to develop ICBM in 1958, the U.S. followed in 1959 and China in 1980. In 1972, the U.S. and Soviet Union signed an Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM, a missile defense system able to destroy an incoming ICBM) which allowed each nation to develop one ABM to protect its capitol and one to protect its ICBM launching site. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, in 1993 the U.S. attempted to define ABM and non-ABM systems and to multi-lateralize the ABM treaty but with no success. In 2002, the U.S. withdrew from the treaty to pursue a National Ballistic Missile Defense System. Today, we have eight nations (the above-mentioned five plus India, Israel, and North Korea) have ICBMs with nuclear war-heads capability with ranges from 1000-3000KM (MRBM), 3000-5500KM (IRBM) and greater than 5600KM ICBMs. China's launch on 9-25-2024 was believed to be Dongfeng 31AG, with a range between Dongfeng 31 (7200-8000 KM) and Dongfeng 41 (12,000-15,000 KM). The media reported its range as 12,000 KM based on its trajectory with a payload of one million tons TNT equivalent and up to seven nuclear warheads. The launch was successful with the dummy warhead falling in the expected area near Hawaii in the Pacific Ocean.
The most talked about significance in the media about China's ICBM launch was its success (in contrast to the recent failed high-speed and long-range missile launch attempts by the U.S., Russia, and UK) with range, accuracy, and speed (12,000Km in 20 minutes.) This military achievement of course signifies that China has now mastered the missile technology since the world-renowned rocket expert and high-speed flight theorist Qian Xuesen returned to China from the U.S. Jet Propulsion Laboratory. He was house-arrested for five years and deported in 1955. Qian as a mathematician not only contributed to China's development of rocket science and technology but more importantly, he cultivated many followers pursuing missile technology and space research. Today China's rocket army (火箭军) and space exploration success owe a great deal to Qian's return to China (Qian is regarded as the father of rocket science in China). Qian was a case of mistrust and discrimination against Chinese scholars in the U.S. (Colleagues at Jet Propulsion Lab felt sorry for him and his leaving.) Yet today, the U.S. intelligence organizations and politicians not only do not reflect on the root of this type of discrimination but still maintain the same bias as shown in the infamous China Initiative Policy (DOJ) and recent House bills trying to revive it. It is no surprise that many Chinese scientists and engineers have decided to return to China.
The real significance of the Dongfeng 31AG (DF 31AG) launch is far beyond military achievement, although its mobile launch vehicle, cold ignition technique, and successful retrieval of the missile do represent a milestone accomplishment compared to the failures of launches by other nations. In this article, the author wishes to address the political significance of the launch of China's DF 31AG; we shall list a few below and then follow with a discussion:
Overall, this DF31AG launch event will likely bind Russia, Middle Asia, and the Middle East tighter to China, and unite the organizations China has created or participated in for world development such as BRI, BRICS, SCO, and AU (African Union and AFCFTA African Continent Free Trade Area), and stimulate EU and Island countries to shape a more independent foreign policy much more favorable to China's trade policy and trade route protection (For example, countering the U.S. island chain blockade in the Pacific, East and South China Sea, and west to the Indian Ocean, UK-US airbase Diego Gracia of Mauritius). As a realist nation, the U.S. is more likely to modify its China policy to pursue mutual benefits!
In our mass media, there is plenty of shocking news in 2024. The Ukraine-Russia war has extended from Ukraine to Russia and the Israel-Hamas war has continued and spread to Lebanon. As an election year for the U.S., we had assassination attempts not once but twice on a presidential candidate, former president Donald Trump, and the theatrical bow-out of President Joe Biden giving Vice President Kamala Harris a chance to substitute him as the Democrat presidential candidate. These widely reported news though have more near-term impact, still their long-term significance has no comparison to the event of China's Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) launch on September 25th, 2024, even though the Western media have given it low-key coverage. After China demonstrated its ICBM capability 44 years ago, China became the third nation with ICBM capability. The power of ICBM being able to carry nuclear warheads and deliver them across continents or oceans is very significant in the good sense that ICBM has become a deterrent weapon preventing major wars from erupting into world wars. Unfortunately, the world's major powers like the UK and France (two other UN Security Council members) and three other nations chose to develop their ICBM capability to boost their standing on the world stage. Therefore, ICBM launch and testing remain important military developments.
Russia was the first nation to develop ICBM in 1958, the U.S. followed in 1959 and China in 1980. In 1972, the U.S. and Soviet Union signed an Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM, a missile defense system able to destroy an incoming ICBM) which allowed each nation to develop one ABM to protect its capitol and one to protect its ICBM launching site. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, in 1993 the U.S. attempted to define ABM and non-ABM systems and to multi-lateralize the ABM treaty but with no success. In 2002, the U.S. withdrew from the treaty to pursue a National Ballistic Missile Defense System. Today, we have eight nations (the above-mentioned five plus India, Israel, and North Korea) have ICBMs with nuclear war-heads capability with ranges from 1000-3000KM (MRBM), 3000-5500KM (IRBM) and greater than 5600KM ICBMs. China's launch on 9-25-2024 was believed to be Dongfeng 31AG, with a range between Dongfeng 31 (7200-8000 KM) and Dongfeng 41 (12,000-15,000 KM). The media reported its range as 12,000 KM based on its trajectory with a payload of one million tons TNT equivalent and up to seven nuclear warheads. The launch was successful with the dummy warhead falling in the expected area near Hawaii in the Pacific Ocean.
The most talked about significance in the media about China's ICBM launch was its success (in contrast to the recent failed high-speed and long-range missile launch attempts by the U.S., Russia, and UK) with range, accuracy, and speed (12,000Km in 20 minutes.) This military achievement of course signifies that China has now mastered the missile technology since the world-renowned rocket expert and high-speed flight theorist Qian Xuesen returned to China from the U.S. Jet Propulsion Laboratory. He was house-arrested for five years and deported in 1955. Qian as a mathematician not only contributed to China's development of rocket science and technology but more importantly, he cultivated many followers pursuing missile technology and space research. Today China's rocket army (火箭军) and space exploration success owe a great deal to Qian's return to China (Qian is regarded as the father of rocket science in China). Qian was a case of mistrust and discrimination against Chinese scholars in the U.S. (Colleagues at Jet Propulsion Lab felt sorry for him and his leaving.) Yet today, the U.S. intelligence organizations and politicians not only do not reflect on the root of this type of discrimination but still maintain the same bias as shown in the infamous China Initiative Policy (DOJ) and recent House bills trying to revive it. It is no surprise that many Chinese scientists and engineers have decided to return to China.
The real significance of the Dongfeng 31AG (DF 31AG) launch is far beyond military achievement, although its mobile launch vehicle, cold ignition technique, and successful retrieval of the missile do represent a milestone accomplishment compared to the failures of launches by other nations. In this article, the author wishes to address the political significance of the launch of China's DF 31AG; we shall list a few below and then follow with a discussion:
- Pre-announcement of the launch with specific notification to the U.S.: This shows the confidence of China's missile army in its launch. Let the world watch and detect its ICBM launch so China may gather more information on others' missile defense capabilities. Since there were not many reports on DF31AG detection, China essentially released a political signal that its high-speed and long-range ICBM is a powerful deterrent weapon not stoppable by ABM and hence useful for maintaining world peace.
- China did put out aerial warning messages with special notification to the Philippines but not to Japan: This is a clear warning to the Philippines about its recent South China Sea (SCS) agitation at the Second Thomas Shoal disrupting China's effort to complete a rule of conduct in SCS with ten ASEAN nations. The launch also sent a message to Japan and other US allies: Only U.S. matters. The U.S. was extremely polite in its reaction to China's DF31AG launch which simply corroborated with China's message. Hence, Australia and New Zealand merely uttered: “The launch is not a welcomed event”.
- Giving U.S. notice of its missile target site near Hawaii: A subtle reminder of the U.S. (NATO) claimed mistake of a guided bomb attack at the Chinese embassy in Yugoslavia in 1999. China will not tolerate such a “mistake” today and is capable of retaliating a “mistake” with a “mistake”. NATO and the U.S. should think hard before extending NATO's presence into Asia.
- The successful launch of DF 31AG at this juncture: It is a timely event with good implications that China shall have a stronger voice in the international arena especially regarding proposing peace talks to settle the Russia-Ukraine war and restraining Israel's overzealous war against its neighbors in the Middle East.
- The reaction from Taiwan: From the media especially the organic media, one can sense an emotional change. Taiwan eagerly reported the DF31AG launching event with far more details than anywhere else. Some were happy that China had made significant progress and some were choked to silence or making senseless remarks. The Taiwan Strait settlement will have a better future, there is less a chance of erupting into war like Ukraine. One may anticipate that the U.S., Japan et al will adopt a sensible Taiwan policy in the coming years. This possible significant outcome can be attributed to China's successful ICBM launch.
- Influence on the U.S. presidential election: Both parties have been using anti-China rhetoric as an excuse for the U.S. domestic problems and the decline of its world influence. DF31AG should awaken Americans that bashing and bullying China is not a smart China policy. The coming presidential election should give Americans a chance to influence and select a president with a more sensible and honorable approach to face the rising China.
- Influence on the U.S. national security: the U.S. has long held the strategy of taking advantage of regional wars so long they will not directly drag the U.S. troops in or extend the war to U.S. soil. The new balance of ICBM power with China's high speed and accurate (US GPS free) ICBMs reachable to the American continent should change the thinking of the U.S. national strategists. Perhaps more negotiations and less regional wars will be the better approach.
Overall, this DF31AG launch event will likely bind Russia, Middle Asia, and the Middle East tighter to China, and unite the organizations China has created or participated in for world development such as BRI, BRICS, SCO, and AU (African Union and AFCFTA African Continent Free Trade Area), and stimulate EU and Island countries to shape a more independent foreign policy much more favorable to China's trade policy and trade route protection (For example, countering the U.S. island chain blockade in the Pacific, East and South China Sea, and west to the Indian Ocean, UK-US airbase Diego Gracia of Mauritius). As a realist nation, the U.S. is more likely to modify its China policy to pursue mutual benefits!
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